How Do GP Shortages in Australia Affect Locum Job Opportunities?

TL;DR: Australia is in the grip of a structural GP shortage that is projected to worsen for decades. For locum doctors, this creates sustained and growing demand, particularly in rural and regional areas where the maldistribution of the workforce is most severe. Understanding where the gaps are, and what drives them, helps locums position themselves for the best opportunities.

The Scale of Australia's GP Shortage

Australia's GP workforce is under serious strain, and the numbers tell a stark story. According to the RACGP, Australia currently faces a shortage of 2,466 full-time equivalent (FTE) GPs. If current trends continue, that gap grows to 5,560 FTE GPs by 2033 and reaches 8,908 by 2048, nearly triple today's shortfall within a generation.

These projections emerge from modelling that factors in population growth, ageing demographics, increasing chronic disease burden, and the ageing GP workforce itself. Demand drivers are significant: by 2048, modelling projects asthma prevalence to rise by 11%, cardiovascular disease by 6.2%, diabetes by 6.2%, obesity by 69%, and mental health conditions by 26.8%.

The RACGP Health of the Nation 2025 report provides the current workforce baseline: in 2024, Australia's primary care workforce included 40,375 GPs, 32,557 vocationally registered, 1,618 non-vocationally registered, and 6,200 in training. The total FTE figure was 29,976, which actually reversed a declining trend from 2022–2023. But supply reversals of this scale are nowhere near sufficient to close the projected gap.

Why the Shortage Intensifies Locum Demand

When a region cannot attract or retain permanent GPs, locum doctors become the primary mechanism for maintaining services. The Australian Government's own analysis of locum use in the medical workforce, a survey of 515 locum doctors and 380 non-locum doctors conducted between May and December 2023, found that nearly two-thirds of locum respondents were GPs or non-GP specialists, and 79% said they would not accept permanent positions in their current locum roles.

This matters: the locum workforce is not simply a transitional staging post for doctors waiting for permanent jobs. It is a deliberate career choice. As the shortage deepens and more practices become structurally reliant on locum cover, this dynamic becomes increasingly important for workforce planning.

The AIHW health workforce data adds context to the urgency. In 2023, the vacancy fill rate for health professionals, including GPs, fell to 44%, down from approximately 60% in 2022–23. Only 1.3 suitable applicants per vacancy were available in 2023, compared to 2.3 the year before. This is not a pipeline problem that resolves itself quickly.

Geographic Maldistribution: Where the Opportunities Are Sharpest

The GP shortage is not evenly distributed across Australia. The AIHW's health workforce data shows that remote and very remote areas have just 205 FTE medical practitioners per 100,000 people, compared to 427 in major cities, less than half the urban rate. The Northern Territory faces the highest unmet GP demand nationally, at 23% of need unmet, while New South Wales, Victoria, and Queensland have their lowest shortfalls at around 5%.

This geographic concentration of need means locum opportunities are particularly abundant in:

• Remote and very remote communities, especially in the NT, northern WA, and outback Queensland and SA, where many communities have no permanent GP at all
• Regional centres, particularly those experiencing GP retirement without replacement
• Outer metropolitan growth corridors, where population growth has outpaced GP supply

For locum doctors willing to work in these settings, the demand is both urgent and ongoing. District of Workforce Shortage (DWS) designations also affect Medicare billing arrangements, which can influence practice income and therefore locum rates in designated areas.

The International Medical Graduate Pipeline and What It Means

One structural feature of Australia's GP workforce has direct implications for locum doctors: 42% of GPs received their training overseas in 2022, up from 34.4% in 2013. Modelling suggests that domestically trained GPs will decline from 53.3% of the workforce in 2023 to 47.6% by 2048, meaning Australia's reliance on international medical graduates (IMGs) is set to deepen.

For locum placement, this creates two dynamics:

1. IMGs filling rural and remote roles under limited registration conditions (requiring supervision) create demand for fully registered GP locums to provide that supervisory layer.
2. As IMGs form an increasing share of the workforce, the credential verification and onboarding process via AHPRA becomes even more important for locum agencies seeking compliant placement.

What Drives Doctors to Choose Locum Work?

Understanding why doctors choose locum work helps explain why the locum market remains resilient despite, or rather, because of, the shortage. According to the government's locum use analysis, the primary reasons locum doctors choose this path are:

1. Higher remuneration, the most frequently cited reason
2. Flexibility and autonomy, better work-life balance, ability to study, or care for family
3. Location choice, the ability to work in preferred settings or avoid undesirable practice environments

These motivations are stable. They are not driven by desperation but by informed preference. And as the shortage deepens, the financial premium attached to locum work is likely to remain.